You are currently browsing the monthly archive for December 2007.
-China Will Make Hong Kong Wait to Elect Leader – Told ya so.
-One Test and 600,000 Destinies in South Africa – This is similar to how things are done in many nations in Europe as well as Japan, South Korea, and China. I wish we would adopt this system of education in the United States. It would never work as parents would have a fit when some school informs them there child is not “college material”. There will be law suits, arguments of discrimination, different “forms of intelligence”, etc. Going back to S.A.’s test. They mention that the % passed has steadily decreased over the last 5 years, but due to shoddy reporting we do not know if this is because more people talking the test than before. The less “elite” the background of the test takers the more likely the average will drop. In any case, it sounds like S.A. is heading in the right direction, but there are still problems of inequality based along class/racial lines, which exist in every society, but in S.A. this is critical as the imbalance is extreme.
-The African Front – A long, but interesting article of how modernity and Islam mix in Kenya.
-Govt to keep ‘hooligans’ away from G-8 summit – Always vigilant, Japan is taking steps to prevent barbaric foreigners, and locals who have fell under their spell, from disturbing Japanese societal harmony and making Japan lose face before foreign guest. LOL
-Offering viable options for the future of Japanese society – An interesting editorial concerning the current political dynamic in the Japanese Diet. It includes summaries of the current problems facing Japan in the way of budget, tax reform, defense concerns, foreign relations, and the environment.
-Does China have fuels reserves for Taiwan Attack? – Thought provoking post from good natured sinophobe Michale Turton. 
It appears that China could sustain an attack on Taiwan for no more than 15 days. I would imagine that China would just need to get immediate air superiority and then blockade Taiwan. Trying to “take” the island would be a fool errand. China does not have the force projection to occupy the island without extreme casualties on China’s side. Then again I would not put “human wave” tactics above China, not even the 2008 incarnation of the CCP. At that point, if they lose, the loss of face with be so bad it could likely end the CCP and lead to civil war. No I’m not joking, it is that serious. The CCP can not afford a loss of face that big at this point; on top of the economic penalties it would bring to China in the short term.
This is surprisingly a good article. So is China buying into the argument that greater appreciation of the Yuan is good for everyone, or is this a hollow show of good face to appease critics? The article is likely correct that the Chinese government will appreciate slowly if they do intend to do that so as to maintain greater control, but the point about speculation is ominous. What is more disturbing to the CCP is the thought of massive unemployment in export related industries leading to even greater social instability, as rural migrants have nowhere to go. They can not go to the city to work and the value of agricultural products at home could fall due to greater foreign competition. Remember that most Chinese still live in rural areas, not large cities.
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China appears to allow faster appreciation of yuan
By Keith Bradsher
Friday, December 28, 2007
HONG KONG:
The yuan has risen faster against the dollar this week than at any time since the end of the Chinese currency’s peg to the dollar in 2005, feeding speculation that the Chinese government has begun allowing a brisker pace of appreciation.
The currency, also known as the renminbi, rose 0.9 percent this week. That included an increase of 0.18 percent on Friday to close at 7.3041 to the dollar in Shanghai trading.
WOW!! I was not expecting this. I did know that Lee was starting to distance himself from Chen and he was also becoming less anti-China and less pro-independence, but this was a drop-kick to Chen Shuibien and his party. I honestly do not know where he is headed with this; other than to sway popular sentiment to his party or maybe in his old age he is just becoming more pragmatic.
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Lee Teng-hui pans Chen, has hopes of third election force
CHANGE NEEDED: The nation’s political scene is a never-ending brawl led by the DPP and KMT, the TSU spiritual leader and former president said
STAFF WRITER
Saturday, Dec 29, 2007, Page 3 A local newspaper yesterday quoted former president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) as lashing out at President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) for having “no concept of democracy.”
The Chinese-language China Times, which interviewed Lee, quoted Lee as saying Chen had overstepped his powers.
Chen has used his position to amass personal wealth and only worked to serve the interests of his own family, Lee said.
-Japan pledges to help China curb pollution – A lot of confidence building came out of this meet, which was good. I lived in Shanghai and I can tell you about the throat and lung infections from the pollution, all the days that were so dark you could not see the sun, etc. China needs all the help it can get with this. It is a beautifully diverse country and although I think they “have to” go through this industrialization, just as everyone else has, itis good they are taking steps to limited the environmental degradation. For more information on other points discussed check here. On a side note, sometimes people underestimate the power of goodwill programs (i.e. exchange students) to change public perception, but I do not. 3,000 students can saw a lot of thinking at home when they get back.
-Taiwan presidential candidate cleared on graft – Told ya so, here.
-Shuffled off to history, veneration of Ro Moo Hyun will follow – French plays the requiem for the Roh Administration in South Korea. I’m sorry but I think he overplayed Roh’s statesmanship here, in large part, due to his dislike of the Bush Administration. I’m not a fan of George W. either, but even he was not stupid enough to try military action against a potentially nuclear armed N.Korea when there was so little intelligence and N.Korea could potentially nuke Seoul and Tokyo; especially with so many American troops exposed. Sorry, Mr. French; don’t buy it. It seems the S.Korean people did not either, as they elected the political opposite of Roh.
-Nigeria’s graft catcher is sent for training – This is not good; just when I was congratulating Nigeria on its anti-corruption crackdown. Although it is likely Nuhu Ribadu did not go out of his way to “bite the hand that feeds”; any crackdown on corruption is better than none at all. The people know this and that is why he has popular public support. $380 billion in graft is nothing to sneeze at.
-Tokyo opposes Taiwan’s UN referendum: Fukuda – This is not shocking coming from a Fukuda Administration. He appears focused on making good relations with America and China; both oppose the referendum. Although I recognize this as the most pragmatic position for all involved I have moral issues with it. I do not understand why Britain and Canada can allow or would allow significant segments of their country to vote for independence and Taiwan, a self governing democracy, can not democratically decide what it wants to do. It makes no difference to me if they voted for independence or voted to seek political unification with China immediately. What matters is they have no choice and countries that pride themselves on democracy and human rights are doing everything they can to smoother their right of self determination.
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Update: It seems the Fukada Admin is sneaky. He said exactly what China wanted to hear in relation to Taiwan and then a couple of days later revised clarified his governments position:
Japan has recently explained that it “does not oppose” the plan to hold a referendum on its bid for a seat in the UN under the name Taiwan, but hopes the referendum will not raise tension in the Taiwan Strait, a senior Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) official said yesterday.
-Turnout is heavy in Kenyan election – Well it is election time in Kenya. I covered the candidate that is expected to win, here a few days ago. It seems to come down to a battle between Kibaki and Odinga; Kibaki being the incumbent establishment candidate of the dominant Kikuya tribe, and Odinga; the up and comer from a less affluent tribal group. Turn out is very high and from earlier reading it seems many people from the various other ethnic groups are tired of the Kikuya running things, but besides that education and the economy seem to be big issues. Whatever happens, I’m glad the vote is being judged “free and fair”.
-Taiwan opposition presidential candidate awaits verdict on corruption case – I am pretty sure the verdict will be upheld and Ma will not go to jail or be disqualified from running for president. I’m also sure he is guilty but you know…
-Japanese PM looks to boost ties through China visit – Well, looks like Fukuda will have a good trip as Beijing seems to approve of him and no major typical issues of “Chinese outrage” are on the table. This usually means that China wants something, like more Japanese investment (as they asked for a few weeks back). China is Japan’s largest trade partner and Japan is China’s largest investor. It seems most of the outstanding issues revolve around economics and military buildups on both sides. Could this be the dawn of new relations? I wouldn’t count on it, but money unites all. The capital must flow!
-Is the sun setting on Japan’s economic power?: GDP drops to 18th among major nations – This is nominal per capita, not purchasing power parity. Japan is still the second largest economy on earth in terms of GDP. Japanese people are also not poor, PPP is more accurate to measure this. This has to do more with exchange rates.
-Asia: Lure of China proves irresistible for Japanese seeking fame and fortune – Maybe relations are getting better, after all. This is a very interesting article, worth the read; especially the last part concerning the Japanese companies problems.
-Africa Brings New Financial Frontier to American Investors – This article speaks primarily about African Americans investing in Africa.
-Japan to amend textbook accounts of Okinawa suicides -My grandfather served in Okinawa during WWII. He told me stories about Japanese people hiding all over the island (i.e. caves) believing that Americans would eat them, because that is what they were told by the government. The Okinawans would jump in the ocean before surrendering or even stab themselves in the throat. Due to historic discrimination against the Okinawans, due to their “impure” status, many Okinawans believe they were used as cannon fodder. My wife thinks that this is not an example of anti-Okinawan discrimination, as all Japanese were instructed to behave similarly. The main difference is that the war never got to the main islands, where they would have been expected to exercise these instructions; Okinawa actually became a battlefield for Japanese civilians.
In any case, I think most Japanese people know about this. It is clear to me that most Japanese people over 30 are aware of this; my wife certainly is and she is no history buff. It is good to acknowledge it formally in history texts though.
-Chinese goods transform life in Southeast Asia – Cheap Chinese goods are apparently a benefit to poor Southeast Asian states, despite their low quality.
-Government to stop energy subsidies next year - Relying more on the market should help control inflation, at least a little bit. This is always a good thing, as price ceilings and floors are inefficient; basic Econ 101. It is also good to see Vietnam moving away from such intricate state intervention in the market.
-Vietnam plans Mekong mega-dam in Laos – Laos wants to become the hydro-capital of Southeast Asia and Vietnam will contract to build it?
Qing (Tsing) Hua University is the top science and engineering school in China. A disproportionate number of high ranking CCP members graduated from there. Many of the current graduates go on to MIT and other top level international universities, so this is “nothing to sneeze at”. When I lived in China, I met a few African students who were studying medicine and engineering at Fudan University. All of them were fluent in Mandarin and a couple were also fluent in Shanghai Dialect, very few foreigners ever manage to master a dialect, so that was impressive (as they are not formally taught). African students studying on scholarship in China go back decades to the socialist/communist solidarity movement they were trying to form with other developing nations against “imperialism”.
This article, along with China’s rise in cell phone and internet technology, is quite exciting. I have read a lot in the media about China’s investment in natural resources and infrastructure projects (many for show) but I did know about technology transfers. I do not recall a lot of talk about this in Broadman’s book, Africa’s Silk Road, so I’m assuming this is still a small but growing market segment. In related news, IBM has new investment plans for South Africa.
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‘Browning’ the technology of AfricaBy G. Pascal Zachary
Thursday, Dec 27, 2007, Page 8
FORGET THE MASSACHUSETTS institute of Technology. Hello, Tsing Hua University. For Clothilde Tingiri, a hot young programmer at Rwanda’s top software company, dreams of Beijing, not Cambridge, to realize her ambitions. Desperate for more education, this fall she plans to attend graduate school in computer science — in China, not the US.
The Chinese are no strangers to Rwanda. Near Tingiri’s office, Rwanda’s largest telecom company, Rwandatel, is installing new wireless telephony equipment made by Huawei of Shenzen. Africa boasts the world’s fastest-growing market for wireless telephony, and Huawei — with offices in 14 African countries — is running away with the business, sending scores of engineers into the bush to bring a new generation of low-cost technology to some of the planet’s poorest people.
First off…HAPPY HOLIDAYS!!!
-Crisis of faith for Catholics in Macao – The article talks about the sharp decline of Catholicism in Macao in the last few years. This is not shocking to me as I have talked about Christianity and China before a few times. Confucianist based societies do not easily mess with Christianity or Abrahamic faiths for that matter.
-‘Lust, Caution’ has its way with bourgeois China – I think Mr. French is almost a decade late. Most Chinese people I know buy the bootleg version that is uncensored. He is talking about elites traveling to Hong Kong to see the movie uncensored, meanwhile average people are watching it on their computer and in their home a day after the movie came out in Hong Kong or Taiwan. I think what is new is that people are publicly starting to complain about state censorship. I still have not got a look at Tang Wei this flick!! I am obviously opposed to any government media censorship.
-Young population dwindles as birth rate declines – More stats and predictions concerning China’s population demographics. The gist of it is that the Chinese population is aging rapidly, part of this is due to the one-child policy, this trend is likely accelerated by the fact China has a huge gender imbalance which will knock a lot of young men out of the breeding pool. There is more on the gender imbalance issue here. I imagine this will likely put a strain on China’s growth, as the amount of labor will decline fairly fast, while the number of retirees dependent on the state increase. I would assume that China’s challenge is to move into more value added/less labor intensive markets before this occurs.
-Class of ‘77 has withstood the test of time in China – The greatest generation? They have my vote as I have been privileged enough to meet several people “sent down” during the Cultural Revolution (Wen Ge). Here is an interesting factoid, “The 4.7 percent of test takers who won admission to universities – 273,000 people – became known as the Class of ‘77, widely regarded in China as the best and brightest of their time. (By comparison, 58 percent of this year’s 9 million exam takers won university places.)”. My friends mother and a Chinese History professor I had were both part of the class of ‘77. After 10 years of oppression at the hands of the state, it must have been an amazing things to be part of; to know that you actually had an opportunity to succeed on merit. The fire in their bellies must have been enormous. It was succeed or go back to hard labor for many; I know it was for the people I know.
-Africa: New Cable Promises Faster Internet – If the net spreads the way telephone use has, “Mr. Karuranga is one of an estimated 120 million Africans using phones, up from just 2 million in 1998.” this is positive news indeed. I also like this will be owned and operated by African entities and the fact that coastal nations will serve as nodes for landlocked nations. So far, about half the countries in Africa have signed on (23).
-Japan defense chief mulling action in event of UFO attack – This is pure comedy! Actually I’m almost certain the U.S. has some outline of a contingency plan in the case of extraterrestrial life being discovered as it will likely cause political/social instability as religious fanatics lose their mind that their holy book did not tell them about aliens. Still, a UFO attack? What is worse is he announced it to the media!!!
-New charges menace Jacob Zuma in South Africa – Wow, that was quick. Who wants to bet Mbeki made a few calls and had a few envelopes of info dropped in the mail anonymously to the prosecutors office? Something slick is going on. “A criminal conviction would end his political career, for South Africa’s Constitution bars felons from becoming president.”
-Africa: Continent Must Scale Up Efforts to Reach Millennium Goals, Says Migiro – Damn I said something similar a few weeks ago. I got criticized on one site for not recognizing and praising Africans on their progress. :-O When I was growing up I did not get praised for doing something “half-assed” but that was my family, but it is not just Africa’s fault. As the article rightly points out, the developed nations have not lived up to their end of the bargain either.
Keeping with the Confucianist trend, Vietnam has been declared the 6th most attractive country for FDI (foreign direct investment) by the UN. Seems like Vietnam finally “got its groove back”. From my reading, there still needs to be more work done on privatizing and simplifying the legal structure, still they are making good progress. I would say that Vietnam needs to continue to focus on niche industries in order to be competitive with China due to their lower level of infrastructure and smaller economy of scale, which is the direction they seem to be headed; quite impressive.
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-UN report analyzes FDI in Vietnam
Secretary-General Supachai Panichpakdi of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) quoted his agency’s recent survey on Tuesday, saying that Vietnam was the sixth most attractive location for foreign direct investment (FDI) over the 2007-2009 period.
