Hillary should get out on March 5 and here is why.
Most people are projecting a split decision, in that Obama will win Texas and Vermont. Hillary will likely win Ohio and Rhode Island. Obama will come out with a slight delegate lead (lets say 5 delegates). Lets imagine he loses Texas by 1 or 2 percent and loses Ohio by 5 percent. He will still likely come away with the majority of Texas Delegates, due to the caucus. The anticipated blow out in Vermont will make up for Rhode Island and whatever comes out of Ohio. Hillary will get less than 10 delegates, nowhere close to breaking his 100+ lead, nor his 1 million+ popular vote lead.
Lets look toward the future:
Obama has South Dakota, Montana, Guam Oregon, North Carolina, Mississippi, Wyoming. Clinton will have the rest, but even (according to the polls at Real Clear Politics) in strong hold states, like Pennsylvania, her poll numbers are dropping and they are not even campaigning there yet. In fact Obama has offices open and already has a game plan. Hillary does not because of lack of money. Obama is outspending her in all for states going to the polls on Tuesday and he still has money to start spreading elseware. That is not counting union support.
The only way Hillary can win is due to Super Delegates. The rules don’t matter, as much as the consequences. Most of the Super Delegates are politicians and they want the person at the top of the ticket who will win, not only in Nov. for the presidency, but also the ticket many of them will be on. Red State Dems, especially don’t want a divisive Hillary on the ticket. Black politicians or people with heavy black constituencies will not go against that and risk losing their jobs in the next election. They are looking at national polls also, all show Hillary significantly behind Obama (Check Real Clear Politics.come for more detail). They are looking at the fact that Obama is attracting independents, moderate Republicans, more people under 25 than anyone in decades, and increasing the black voter turn out significantly. Hillary can’t do that.
Hillary has high negatives, and she is seen as divisive (especially in a lot of Swing States). Some of this is not her fault, she is paying for Bill’s sins, but that is life. She can’t run on his record and not get the bad as well. Obama can put states like Virginia in play (which are trending Democratic lately) Hillary can not. Obama can rally black support like you have never seen in Swing States like Missouri and Ohio. Hillary can not. In 2000, according to Wiki, 18% of blacks voted for Bush. That won’t happen with Obama on the ticket next to McCain.
The vast majority of Super Delegates do not want to go against the popular vote and alienate voters (regardless if they have the right to do so or not) and take a chance these folks will stay home. Obama can win Cali, NJ, NY, etc. Any Democratic can this year, but Hillary can’t put the states in play that he can. Obama might make it a 55-45 contest and not just a 51-49.
For these reasons, Hillary should also drop out because the longer she is in when she can’t win a clean race the more she will attack and weaken Obama, who has to fight her, Bush, and McCain. If this goes on until August you will have 8 weeks to get things going, when McCain has had 6 MONTHS, taking notes on all the infighting, ready to go on Obama.
If Hillary cares about the party, and if she cares about a Democrat who shares 98% of her views getting in the White House she will get out on March 5 and support Obama fully…better him than McWar. Obama needs to take his financial advantage and the full Democratic machine to work on McCain now while he is disorganized and poorer. He should not be wasting time with Hillary. Unlike Huckabee, Hillary is hurting Obama by harping on how he is unready to be president, you think McCain is not listening and won’t replay that stuff?
As far as Fl and MI forget it. Howard Dean has said only a reelection is fair, but due to cost it is likely going to be caucuses. Obama will likely win them anyway, or come in so close it is a draw. Nancy Pelosi, chair of the convention in August, said that Super Delegates will not decide this and MI and FL will not be seated before a candidate is chosen as the rules were known and all candidates agreed to it and signed the agreements before hand.
I can imagine that a lot of Super Delegates are holding out till March 4th to see what happens out of respect (favors called) for the Clintons, but after that their will be a lot of “sit downs” and press meetings of prominent ones like Sen Durban. Gov. Richardson said today that whoever has the most delegates on March 5 should be the nominee, he basically endorced Obama without having to do it (betray the Clintons). The party is turning on Hillary. Time to call it a day.
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Dragon Horse’s Official Picks for Super Tuesday II:
Texas - Obama 10+
Ohio - Clinton < 4
Rhode Island - Clinton 5-10
Vermont - Obama 12+
The current Clinton staged signage situation is merely the latest example of how Team Clinton has chosen to stage events, such as planting people who asked her rigged questions. Of course, it’s a free country and they’re breaking no laws. But contrary to their intentions, they’ve hurt Mrs. Clinton’s chances to win as well as Bill’s legacy, which, before this race, was reasonably respectable. Why?
Because we all didn’t fall off turnip trucks out here. Because most of the people can’t be fooled most of the time. Yet, Team Clinton, relying on Mark Penn’s Focus-Group polling, decided from the beginning to discover common gullibilities and then exploit them. It’s proved to be a miserable failure, first because it didn’t work. Second, because it proves how inauthentic Team Clinton is.
Team Clinton woefully underestimated the American skill at detecting snake oil. We may buy it for a while, but don’t keep shoving it down our throats after we’ve seen it for what it is. Mrs. Clinton didn’t get that memo.
There are basically two areas that Team Clinton claims to have experience in - foreign affairs and economics - that seem to be convincing some people of Mrs. Clinton’s superiority. But a brief reading of some historical documents, and many individuals have come to realize just how damaging the Clinton Administration was.
First, Mrs. Clinton has insistently claimed that she didn’t know that W was intent on going to war with Iraq, which is why she voted to give him the power to go to war. This is clearly not true. In 1998 the Project for the New American Century - a Neoconservative think-tank with Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz as members - wrote Bill Clinton a letter, urging him to seek regime change in Iraq. See: http://www.newamericancentury.org/iraqclintonletter.htm .
In Dec., ‘98, as a result of the Neocon pressure to attack Iraq, Clinton conducted Operation Desert Fox - the bombing campaign against Iraq (see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Desert_Fox ). Then in ‘00 the same team that had urged Bill to attack Iraq moved into the White House. It was only a matter of time before W was going to attack Iraq and both Clintons knew it. By ‘02 Mrs. Clinton had no doubt whatsoever that W and his Neocon Administration were inevitably going to attack Iraq.
There may be an argument for attacking Iraq, but there’s no defense for Team Clinton’s deceit regarding the issue. Also, what her flipflopping has done, which she never seems to realize, is that, like the previous Democratic loser, she was for the war before she was against it. How will that fare against McCain if she were to win?
Team Clinton also exhibits a disturbing pattern of deception regarding Bill’s Administration and Mrs. Clinton’s original support for NAFTA. First, the econmy wasn’t doing well mostly because of Bill, but because of the prevailing circumstances in the country. They included, oil that was $10 a barrel, a computer and digital revolution, low interest rates, low inflation, early golbalization, inflation of housing prices that bolstered home owners’ portfolios, as well the deregulation of financial institutions. That deregulation, in part, set the stage for the current subprime meltdown.
See:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gramm-leach-bliley . This bill enabled banks and lending institutions to restructure and focus on credit and debt. It repealed Glass-Steagall, which had been constructed specifically so the country could avoid another Great Depression. It all changed, however, because of Bill’s allegiance to Big Business and to the Third Way (see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_Way_%28centrism%29 ) - a capitualtion to right wing economics.
If you’re happy with the Neocon foreign policy of the past 8 years, if you’re content with the loss of American manufacturing, static and lower wages, trade that disproportionately favors Big Business, cheap labor, illegal immigration, and weakened unions, then, by all means, vote for Clinton. If you’re unhappy with those conditions, then there’s only one choice - vote Obama.
“If you’re happy with the Neocon foreign policy of the past 8 years, if you’re content with the loss of American manufacturing, static and lower wages, trade that disproportionately favors Big Business, cheap labor, illegal immigration, and weakened unions, then, by all means, vote for Clinton. If you’re unhappy with those conditions, then there’s only one choice - vote Obama.”
How is Obama substantively different from Hillary Clinton (as opposed to her husband) on any of these issues?
All three candidates are supportive of illegal immigration which drives down the wages of the very least Americans of any race (but especially black folks).
Both Obama and Hillary Clinton would be more amenable to getting us out of Iraq ASAP compared to McCain, but both he and Hillary Clinton appear to be partial to “humanitarian interventions” abroad, which could be just as interventionist as what the current administration has done over the last eight years. Indeed, Obama has said he isn’t opposed to “good wars”. With all the hot spots in the world that have nothing to do with the United States’ national interests, could we rely on Obama not to poke his nose in other’s business?
More about Obama’s foreign policy:
Can Obama Save Us?
http://www.antiwar.com/justin/?articleid=12306
Where you at, Dragon Horse? If Team Hillary keeps up with this “kitchen-sink” (more like “scorched-earth”) strategy, it’s time for the black blogosphere to step up.
I’m going to start linking more to those who blog about Hillary’s tactics. We can’t just sit back and watch.
Read my next post. Best thing any of us can do is bring up all the old Clinton scandals and hit the tax returns, Bill’s business deals with Stan Lee, in Kazakhstan, etc.