If Hillary keeps up her scorched earth policy (thanks UCBM) it will not be worth much. The headlines are currently “Hillary wins the big states of Ohio and Texas”…most people aren’t going to read for details. It does not matter that Obama won the majority of delegates in Texas. This is interesting, because if this was about the popular vote then their should be no delegate system? Obviously this should be about delegates but the media always plays it. Hillary did not win Nevada, Obama got more delegates but the press says she won. How did she win, if the primaries/caucus are based on delegate count and not popular vote? Why is there are “magic delegate number” if delegates are not more important than popular vote?
The reality is, Obama won Wyoming decisively and will win Mississippi by a landslides and then there are 5 weeks until Pennsylvania. Hillary will likely pick up 2 more states after that, but he will win the rest, probably the only other landslip will be in favor of Obama in North Carolina. Then this will go to the convention. Hillary is already fighting to get Florida and Michigan entered “as is” she does not even want a revote. In the end, when it is all said and done Obama will likely be the nominee based on majority of popular vote and delegates, but he will be the nominee of a divided party. My question is what is that worth? After the convention there will be 8 weeks to run for president. John McCain had 6 months to attack Obama, and for most of that time Hillary will also be attacking him.
Currently Hillary is trying to undermine Obama’s credibility of as commander and chief. She know this will hurt him in the general election and she knows if he is elected she might never become president if he can make it two terms. Clinton’s remarks, about Obama not ready to be commander and chief as much as McCain, were stupid and will be replayed by the Republican National Committee.
The grand goal of both candidates and all the party top dogs should be able to get a Democrat in the White House in 2009. They can argue about anything they want, but what Hillary has done has went against the parties organization goal. It makes it appear that if she feels she can’t win she does not want him to win either so she can run in 2012. She looks hypocritical though floating this joint ticket with her at the top idea. If Obama is not qualified to be president then why would she have him one step from the presidency? If anything happened to her (i.e. cancer) he would be president, that can happen anytime after the enter office. So she is saying she would have someone on her ticket who is not qualified to be president?????
What???
There is a difference between making an “impolite comment” and undermining someone’s ability to win in November when they are in the same party as you. Obama needs to hit her on all this 24/7 through surrogates. Hillary will keep this up and attempt to eviscerate Obama, much like Kennedy – Carter in 1980 or McGovern – Johnson in the 60’s. Obama will be so badly damaged that McCain will just have to push him over. McCain is old and he will likely be a one term president. I’m scared to think of what he might do in that situation. I’m thinking he will bomb Iran and do some other controversial things, but that’s another story.
Lets say Hillary gets the nomination, I’m convinced Hillary Clinton will lose a general election because most men won’t vote for her and add that in with Republican women. At best she is a 51-49% candidate, but the fact is the independents will flock to McCain, and she won’t turn a swing state. Unlike the Democratic primary, the general election is not going to be 60% female. Hillary can’t cry and complain about sexism, media bias, and expect that to fly with men. It won’t. McCain is going to gut her. All McCain has to do is separate himself successful from Bush. Obama at least has a chance at competing with McCain in swing votes, Hillary has not shown any ability to do this and her negative ratings are quite high, even in her own party. She can not win on the strenght of Democratic white women over 40.
This is why I’m starting to think if Obama and party elders can not muster enough force to push her out before June, he might be better to not get the nomination at all. In this type of situation, Obama can run in 2012. In fact I would encourage Obama to go extremely negative and bring up her tax returns, the fact she won’t release her White House files, and remind the nation of all the 8 years of Clinton scandals. He needs to get his surrogates (not him) to remind people of Whitewater, Paula Jones, Kathleen Willey, Juanita Broderick, Marc Rich, Norman Hsu, the MacDougals, Vince Foster, Travelgate, and Denise Rich’s campaign contributions after her husbands pardon. He needs to run commercials that remind us of the embarrassing impeachment and the things Hillary said about a “right wing conspiracy” and how divisive she was. He needs to give America a preview of what the Republicans are going to do every single night of the week. To make it short, he needs to do what she is currently doing to him but 100X harder. He can easily do that because she has far more garbage on her than she has on him. Hillary should not be able to run on her husband’s records without paying his sins.
Americans don’t have long memories and frankly the electorate (on average) is not very bright. 4 years from now no one will remember, just like they don’t remember Bill Clinton was a scumbag and the political deadlock his administration caused, how he got numerous Democrats ejected from Congress, and the fact Bill Clinton did not cause the IT bubble in the 1990s. Obama need to be remind the voters country was going into recession when Clinton was leaving office. They need to remind people that Clinton did not kill Osama Bin Laden when he had the chance. If Hillary is running on Bill Clinton’s record they need to go after his record and everything she did to support him. This will undoubtedly divided the party, but big deal. As I said, this is scorched earth policy, here. He needs to give the Republicans all the ammo they need against Hillary and then “drop out for the good of the party and throw support behind her. Then run in 2012. Hillary will be like John Kerry is today. A person who lost a race she should have won.”
On a side note, We might have a woman president at any time, but I’m increasingly convinced that the window for a black president is very short. Why? Mexican Americans. No, I did not say Hispanics. I’m speaking specifically about Mexico Americans. I’m convinced they will only vote for a black person when they have no choice (after the primary) they will never vote for a black man given a choice. Any black man. If you want to know why…if you have not been to Latin America it is simple. “White is RIGHT.” If you don’t believe that look at Spanish language TV. Most of the people on those TV show look pure white, like they got off the boat from Spain and those that don’t have dyed hair and enough make-up on to fake it. If you go to Latin America you will notice that most of the rich people are white and the poor people are obviously mixed race (usually the darker more Indian and black looking ones). Things have been this way since colonization and they are not going to change so the more of them that come here the more of their racism and colorism they will bring with them. I don’t care what the media political correct spin is, I know the reality down there and I know the fact that most of the immigrants who come here are also the “darker” ones and that is for a reason. They bring that self-hate with them. So I’m guessing after the next 3 elections there will be enough Mexican Americans here (children of legals and illegals) in this country to the point that a black person can not win a major state in a primary.
A suggestion to the Super Delegates. How does Hillary Clinton win a general election if 15-25% of black stay home because they feel Obama got cheated through backroom dealing?
Illinois - The black vote is about 14% of the total electorate
New Jersey - The black vote is about 13% of the total electorate
New York - The black vote is about 16.5% of the total electorate
Pennsylvania - The black vote is about 9.5% of the total electorate
California - The black vote is about 6.7% of the total electorate
Ohio - The black vote is about 11% of the total electorate
Missouri - black vote is about 12% of the total electorate
All swing states.
Hillary can not win without significant black support. If you throw the race her way when Obama has the majority of delegates, the majority of popular votes, and has won the majority of states black folks are not going to “go along to get along”. Think hard about that. Obama has already said he will not be running as VP.
Probably a cat fight here:
http://www.breitbart.tv/html/60594.html
It still is worth it for Obama to win, I don’t see the HIllary voters as emotionally invested in her victory as the Obama supporters. Which means if he gets the nomination (likely when) Clinton supporters will get behind Obama, but it won’t work for Hillary in the reverse, without a strong press propoganda machine, like around the time when all the scandals never got any traction during their former administration.
It will be interesting to see if the Obama crowd can make these former scandals mean something now, when it trully was distracting to their presidency, even to the point of making national security decisions being questioned as “wag the dog”, that now these will get any play.
I think the best thing to do is to take all the actions of the Clintons and create a narrative of motives, selfish ambition. Ask questions if the Clintons were ever making decisions for the good of the country above how it would reflect back on them or their legacy. Are they even married? Do they live together. Is even the relationship maintained for the poitical capital?
It would certainly be an interesting press story to dig into wondering if the relationship will remain the same status if Hillary loses.
Ken:
Sorry, took me a minute to get back to you.
I think Obama has somewhat put himself in a corner. His campaign is based on change from this type of politics. If he goes too far, he can easily kneecap Hillary but he might end up looking like the bad guy and loose supporters…I also think Hillary is good at playing the femme fatale who is being ganged up on by all these bad evil sexist men…”oh look the giant negro and his white male friends are attacking poor little ol’ me…”
She is good at playing the victim/gender card and low IQ white working class women respond.
I think the American people need to see Obama prove he can fight for American interest. I believe he has credibility as a candidate who prefers not resorting to personal attacks. I don’t know if you have watched ultimate fighting, many times there is a guy who is good at boxing and one who is good at wrestling. The wrestler loses when he pulls the boxer down, like he must do, and finds out the boxer is also a good wrestler. The good boxer can still win, but he isn’t going to do it boxing if the wrestler tackles him.
Hillary is a weak wrestler and boxer, but if Obama just lays there even a weak wrestler can still win. Aggressive republicans have been frustrated with all the wrestling moves available to them in the past when dealing with the Clintons, and watching there representative in the ring not use any of them. Its possible Obama may do the same for his supporters.
The truth is Amercians do not like Hillary, and if someone puts some wrestling moves on her, I think most will only think she had it coming, and also may conclude Obama will defend America when its warranted.