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“Guantanamo and the Uighurs: The Story of China’s Other Minority – Part I.” also up at Brooks Foreign Policy Review.
by Collin Spears – Visiting Fellow, Center for New Politics and Policy
Officially, the People’s Republic of China has 55 distinct ethnic minority groups, which total to about 100 million in number or 8.5 percent of the country’s population. Most of these minorities live on the margins of China-proper, and do not have greater issues with the national government than the Han majority who live in similar situations. Some groups, such as the ethnic Koreans (Chaoxian) and Manchu (Mǎnzú), are highly integrated into the Chinese mainstream. However, the best known Chinese minority internationally, especially in the West, are the Tibetans (XīZàng). They are widely understood to be an oppressed culturally distinct minority who wants independent or, at the very least, greater autonomy from Beijing.
This level of international awareness is astonishing; considering, the Tibet Autonomous Region (Xīzàng Zìzhìqū) is roughly 12% of China’s total land area, but Tibetans make up less than half of one percent of China’s population. This makes them only the ninth largest minority group. The Tibetan Issue is well known, primarily due to a superior global marketing campaign, which includes the venerable Dalai Lama and a host of celebrity Western activists, such as Richard Gere and Sting. However, the Uighurs (also Uyghurs, Wéiwú’ěr) are a more numerous minority who have struggled just as long against the Han Chinese, whose homeland also makes up a larger territory, have never enjoyed the same international regard. Perhaps, Turkic Muslims are not as appealing to the hearts and minds of the West as monks in flowing robes, despite the latter’s harsh feudalistic history. Besides cultural bias, the Uighurs have likely failed at marketing, because unlike the Tibetans, they have no central leadership that is universally recognized by all the disparate factions.
Originally posted at Brooks Foreign Policy Review.
by Collin Spears – Visiting Fellow, Center for New Politics and Policy
If the United States and its allies want to denuclearize the Korean peninsula, and not just temporarily allay tensions, they must call Kim Jong-Il’s bluff by escalating the situation. As North Korea’s primary benefactor, China is the only nation that can force the North to dismantle its nuclear arsenal and return to 6-Party Talks. However, China will not exert such pressure, until the threat of instability on its border forces it to recalculate the utility of supporting the Kim regime. When the liability of North Korea becomes a greater threat to China’s internal security than the potential presence of American troops at its border, China will cooperate with the American alliance. Contrary to common media depiction, Kim is a rational actor. In fact, when scrutinizing North Korea’s conduct with the supposition that every action it has taken is for the preservation of Kim’s personal power, it is apparent that even the most provocative actions have been deliberate. America must use a realist approach to exploit these aims, if it wants to end the last great impasses of the Cold War.
This article can also be found at Brooks Foreign Policy Review, here.
by Collin Spears – Visiting Fellow, Center for New Politics and Policy
As discussed in Part I of this series, the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA) will be a win-win for the signatories. The agreement will produce greater economies of scales, as it expands trade between members, which will result in an aggregate increase in competitive export products from China and ASEAN. However, it will not foreshadow European-style regional integration, at least not in the near future. The centrifugal force generated by the agreement will not only draw ASEAN closer to China, the regions manufacturing hub, but it will push those states outside the bloc to liberalize their own trade in order to stay competitive. While the United States is generally supportive of ASEAN, it is not in the strategic interest of the U.S. for it to be outside of an Asian economic bloc, especially one that will aid in cementing a strong Chinese leadership position in Southeast Asia. Implementation of this agreement has increased concerns among some analysts that the economic and perhaps, the political center of gravity of the region are shifting away from the United States and toward China.
The latest article is now up at Brooks Foreign Policy Review, here.
In 1990, the controversial right-wing Governor of Tokyo, Ishihara Shintaro, published “The Japan That Can Say No: Why Japan Will Be First Among Equals”. Nearly 20 years later, many Japanese are still pondering if or when Japan can “say no” to the United States, the target of Ishihara’s book. Since the end of World War II (WWII), Japan has worked closely with the United States on issues of East Asian security. Still, if America is not careful in addressing Japanese concerns, especially in regard to North Korea, this may create a tipping point in U.S. – Japanese relations, where Tokyo significantly breaks with Washington over foreign policy.
Part II of the previous article is now up at Brooks Foreign Policy Review, here.
Main site is here.
China and the Global Recession: Part II – Relations with the United States
BFPR ANALYSIS
By Collin Spears, Chief Foreign Policy Correspondent,
Washington D.C. Bureau
In 2001, the Bush Administration characterized China as a “strategic competitor” to the United States. This may still be an accurate depiction of U.S. – Sino relations, at least as it applies to certain aspects of the multifarious relationship between the two nations. Financially, China and the U.S. have long been symbiotic. Despite the mutual benefits attained from this situation, there have been numerous points of contention, issues that have only been aggravated by the global financial crisis. The U.S. and China will have to find politically palatable ways to work though some of these differences, because the future economic viability of both nations depends on it.
This is too cute.
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Receptionists at the Sekumiya Hotel in the city of Obama in Fukui prefecture
© AFP Shaun Tandon
Obama, Japan, roots for accidental namesake
OBAMA, Japan (AFP) – Obama, Japan, is rooting for candidate Obama, hoping that if he becomes the US president he will put this ancient fishing town of 32,000 people firmly on the tourist map and, just maybe, choose it for an international summit.
Supporters in Obama — which means “small shore” in Japanese — have held parties to watch election results, put up posters wishing the senator luck and plan a special batch of the town’s “manju” sweets bearing his likeness.
“At first we were more low-key as Hillary Clinton looked to be ahead, but now we see he is getting more popular,” Obama Mayor Toshio Murakami said.
“I give him an 80 percent chance of becoming president,” the 75-year-old said with a proud grin.
Murakami sent a letter last year to Obama, enclosing a set of lacquer chopsticks, a famous product of this town on the Sea of Japan (East Sea) in Fukui prefecture’s Wakasa region.
“I will present you the chopsticks of Wakasa paint and I am glad if you use it habitually,” Murakami said in the English-language letter. “I wish you the best of health and success.”
Murakami noted that Barack Obama’s birthday, August 4, happens to be “Chopsticks Day” in the city.
The manager and recptionist of the Sekumiya Hotel in the city of Obama
© AFP Shaun Tandon
Obama, who is also a hero in his father’s native Kenya, has been gaining in a neck-and-neck race with Clinton, in part by winning over voters in states that rarely back members of their Democratic party.
Murakami is now preparing another package for the candidate that will include a good-luck charm from the local Obama Shrine.
“For the first letter I found his address on the Internet, so I don’t know if he got it,” Murakami said. “But this time I asked the (US) embassy for his exact address, so I’m sure he’ll get it.”
Lest cynics find the city’s efforts naive, it was Obama himself who first drew attention to the connection.
Obama, speaking to Japan’s TBS network in December 2006, said that when he flew once to Tokyo, an officer stamping his passport told him of the town.
“He looked up and said, ‘I’m from Obama,’” the senator said.
A professor saw the footage and contacted the mayor, who insists that his support for Obama goes beyond just his name.
“It seems to me that President Bush isn’t aggressively addressing global warming, but Obama would. And I like how he opposed the Iraq war,” he said.
Murakami also hoped a President Obama would sign a peace treaty with North Korea. It is no small issue in Obama, one of the seaside towns where agents from the communist state kidnapped Japanese in the 1970s and 1980s, setting off a long row between the countries.
The election is being closely followed by many in 1,500-year-old Obama, a port nestled by snowy hills that in ancient times supplied food to the emperor when he lived in Kyoto some 75 kilometres (40 miles) to the south.
“When you look in Obama’s eyes and hear his voice, he’s very impressive,” said resident Rieko Tanaka.
“Hillary is a bit old-fashioned and she’s the wife of Bill Clinton, so I think a new person should lead the USA,” she said.
Tomoyuki Ueda, 40, a company worker dining at a restaurant serving the town’s celebrated mackerel, said it would be healthy for the United States to elect its first African-American president.
“I think both Obama and Hillary are qualified, but if Obama becomes president he could correct problems of racial discrimination,” he said.
Seiji Fujihara, a head of the local tourism board, said he has only met a black person once, but believed Obama’s election would make the United States “more equal” on racial issues.
Fujihara started a club for self-styled Obama supporters in the city and plans “I love Obama” T-shirts.
“We know we can’t vote. But if we send out a message, we can help push him to victory,” he said.
©AFP
-Rice Rebukes Bush Envoy Who Criticized Policy on North Korea – Jay Lefkowitz, President Bush’s special envoy on North Korean human rights said the current Bush Admin policy will not solve the nuclear issue in North Korea before Bush leaves office. Well, he is right, that is obvious to someone of the meanest intelligences.
-Roadblocks on the Great Asian Highway – Interesting article about overcoming infrastructural barriers between Thailand, Laos, and China to create more efficient trade; and some immediate negative externalities for the local Laotian people.
-Corruption-fighting Vietnamese granny gets award – Transparency International awards Vietnamese grandma for fighting the good fight for 25 years against death threats from local government officials. This woman is 150 cm (4′11″ inch) tall and 40 kilograms (88 lbs) and has more “balls” than 99% of the politicians in Washington D.C., unfortunately for us Americans.
- China closes 44,000 pornographic websites in 2007 – The Chinese government is not fond of “adult entertainment”. This is part of the increasingly common crackdown on various facets of the sex industry in China. I’m sure shutting down 44,000 websites has kept the thought police quite busy.
-Science with Africa: Accelerating Science and Technology in Africa – Information on a conference in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia from 3 to 7 March. The themes of the conference will be science and innovation policy, science themes and innovation and will consist of plenary sessions and workshops.
-Africa: ‘U.S. Recession a Threat to Third World Exports’ – There has been a recession fear going through North America, Europe, and East Asia lately but any economic downturn for the United States will also significantly effect some of the world’s poorest nations, which are already on the margin. This will not just hurt trade but also aid revenues.
I did not think the DPP would gain control of the legislature from the KMT, but I also did not believe they would lose this badly. The KMT won 82 out of 113 seats. Ouch! Before the KMT just had a slight majority, enough to create deadlock. It seems this was a referendum on Chen Shuibien’s administration.
If Ma wins the presidency and completes KMT dominance, a lot of things will change in Taiwan. The 8 year deadlock has caused significant social stagnation on the island. I’m sure China will be pleased with this. The KMT are not ready to rejoin China, but they will not make any provocative moves either. This takes pressure off of American and Japan. Closer economic ties with the Mainland would likely help to jump start the economy; right now Taiwanese business is handicapped, which is a primary reason that business is firmly behind the KMT.
I repeatedly noticed during the campaign that the KMT has calmed down some of their “pro-mainland” rhetoric. It seems that multi-party democracy has led the Taiwanese government to reflect the pragmatic mood of the public. This is a good thing. I do not interpret this as a push by Taiwanese people (Benshengren and Waishengren) toward a pro-China position, but more of a pulling back of the more extreme rhetoric from Chen Shuibien in recent years; economic sluggishness; and corruption in the DPP (who originally ran on anti-corruption). The campaign rhetoric in both the Pan-Blue and Pan-Green camps has been to moderate their positions to the center. A good example of this is the fact Ma did not oppose the UN Referendum. He just opposed “how it was being handled”. My understanding was he wanted Taiwan to try to join the UN under the Republican of China (or maybe China Taipei); whereas he feared Chen wanted to do it as “Taiwan”, which would indicate “political separation” from the mainland.
As I have said many times, I am not pro-reunification or pro-independence. I’m pro-democracy. If this is what the people want then so be it.
Election fraud allegations are already starting to fly over at Michael Turton’s. There is no word yet from the anti-DPP China Desk, but keep posted.
Will Ma be Taiwan’s next president? It looks very likely.
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Opposition wins easily in Taiwan
The Associated Press
Saturday, January 12, 2008
TAIPEI: Taiwan’s opposition Nationalist Party won a landslide victory in legislative elections Saturday, dealing a humiliating blow to the government’s hardline China policies two months before the presidential election.
President Chen Shui-bian resigned as chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party immediately after his party’s defeat. “I should shoulder all responsibilities,” Chen said. “I feel really apologetic and shamed.”
- ‘Iron Lady’ bids public farewell – Wu taitai gone already? I was looking forward to reading more about her after the last Sino-EU summit. Maybe she can consult for some African nations. This woman is a bulldog, and I mean that in a respectful way. Not just anyone could lead the negotiation for China ascension to the WTO.
-S Korean military on alert following attacks by hackers – I’m not really surprised Chinese hackers attacked South Korea as there have been some major “beefs” between the two nations over interpretation of overlapping ancient histories.
-Overseas Vietnamese eyed for hi-tech sector – Saigon Hi-tech Park is trying to recruit overseas Vietnamese tech workers to make up for the shortage of domestic talent. As one would expect there are growing pains.
-China to Switch to Lethal Injections – China said they will stop shooting people in the head and use lethal injection, which is funny due to the fact America is debating if “lethal injection” is cruel and unusual punishment. Cruel and unusual punishment is against the U.S. constitution.
-Li Yinhe on the recent porn crackdowns – An interesting post on porn crackdowns in China.
-Japan pledges to help China curb pollution – A lot of confidence building came out of this meet, which was good. I lived in Shanghai and I can tell you about the throat and lung infections from the pollution, all the days that were so dark you could not see the sun, etc. China needs all the help it can get with this. It is a beautifully diverse country and although I think they “have to” go through this industrialization, just as everyone else has, itis good they are taking steps to limited the environmental degradation. For more information on other points discussed check here. On a side note, sometimes people underestimate the power of goodwill programs (i.e. exchange students) to change public perception, but I do not. 3,000 students can saw a lot of thinking at home when they get back.
-Taiwan presidential candidate cleared on graft – Told ya so, here.
-Shuffled off to history, veneration of Ro Moo Hyun will follow – French plays the requiem for the Roh Administration in South Korea. I’m sorry but I think he overplayed Roh’s statesmanship here, in large part, due to his dislike of the Bush Administration. I’m not a fan of George W. either, but even he was not stupid enough to try military action against a potentially nuclear armed N.Korea when there was so little intelligence and N.Korea could potentially nuke Seoul and Tokyo; especially with so many American troops exposed. Sorry, Mr. French; don’t buy it. It seems the S.Korean people did not either, as they elected the political opposite of Roh.
-Nigeria’s graft catcher is sent for training – This is not good; just when I was congratulating Nigeria on its anti-corruption crackdown. Although it is likely Nuhu Ribadu did not go out of his way to “bite the hand that feeds”; any crackdown on corruption is better than none at all. The people know this and that is why he has popular public support. $380 billion in graft is nothing to sneeze at.
-Tokyo opposes Taiwan’s UN referendum: Fukuda – This is not shocking coming from a Fukuda Administration. He appears focused on making good relations with America and China; both oppose the referendum. Although I recognize this as the most pragmatic position for all involved I have moral issues with it. I do not understand why Britain and Canada can allow or would allow significant segments of their country to vote for independence and Taiwan, a self governing democracy, can not democratically decide what it wants to do. It makes no difference to me if they voted for independence or voted to seek political unification with China immediately. What matters is they have no choice and countries that pride themselves on democracy and human rights are doing everything they can to smoother their right of self determination.
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Update: It seems the Fukada Admin is sneaky. He said exactly what China wanted to hear in relation to Taiwan and then a couple of days later revised clarified his governments position:
Japan has recently explained that it “does not oppose” the plan to hold a referendum on its bid for a seat in the UN under the name Taiwan, but hopes the referendum will not raise tension in the Taiwan Strait, a senior Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) official said yesterday.
